7/7/26: Argentina 3 — Egypt 2 (AET)Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta

by ceduarte1

Full Match Highlights

I now have all the detail I need. Let me write the post.

7/7/26: Argentina 3 — Egypt 2 (AET) Atlanta Stadium, Atlanta

Full Match Highlights

There is a word for what Argentina are doing at this World Cup, and the word is destiny. There is no other rational explanation. Because rational explanations have long since packed their bags and left the building. What unfolded in Atlanta on Tuesday night was not football as a sport so much as football as theatre — and not the clean, cathartic kind. The kind with a morally ambiguous plot, a villain nobody can agree on, and a protagonist who makes you believe in miracles even when the evidence against them is overwhelming.

Argentina survive. Again. But this one will leave a mark.

The Opening — Egypt Draw First Blood

In the 15th minute, centre-back Yasser Ibrahim rose to meet Marwan Attia’s corner and delivered a glorious header that left Argentina stunned and trailing for the very first time at this World Cup. It was perfectly executed — the delivery arcing away from goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, Ibrahim attacking it with conviction, and Lisandro Martínez caught in two minds between stepping out or tracking his man. He chose neither, and paid the price.

Argentina’s immediate response came at the penalty spot. Nicolás Tagliafico drew the foul, and Messi stepped up with a chance to immediately level the game. What followed was one of the most talked-about moments of the tournament. Goalkeeper Mostafa Shobeir read the direction of Messi’s left-footed strike perfectly, diving to his right to parry it away and preserve Egypt’s lead. The miss made Messi the first player in World Cup history to miss two penalties in a single edition of the tournament. Former Scotland striker Ally McCoist, watching on ITV, put it as plainly as anyone could: “He actually didn’t look really confident. I can’t believe I’m saying that of one of the greatest players on earth. It’s the first time I’ve ever seen him when I’m not sure he believed himself.”

Messi proved he is human. He placed the shot too close to Shobeir, who barely had to move his weight before launching himself at the ball. The GOAT, for once, looked mortal.

Shobeir’s heroics continued as he denied Alexis Mac Allister a chance to equalize from Rodrigo De Paul’s cross, and kept out Julián Álvarez from close range to send the teams to the break with Egypt still in front. For the first 45 minutes, the Pharaohs were not merely resisting — they were controlling. They were, simply put, the better team.

The VAR Storm

Then came the moment that will define this match in the history books — for better or worse, depending on which shirt you were wearing.

In the 58th minute, Mostafa Zico appeared to have scored one of the great World Cup goals, a brilliant finish at the end of a devastating Egypt counter that would have put the Pharaohs 2-0 up. Zico tore off his shirt in celebration. The Egyptian bench erupted. For a few extraordinary minutes, the world was witnessing one of the great upsets. Then VAR intervened.

A review determined that Egyptian midfielder Marwan Attia had fouled Argentina defender Lisandro Martínez in the build-up to the goal — the goal was ruled out. The problem, as virtually every neutral observer noted immediately, was the distance between the foul and the goal itself. FOX Sports analyst and former FIFA referee Mark Clattenburg was unambiguous: “I don’t believe that A. it was a foul, and B. there should be a VAR intervention to disallow this goal. This one had many passes and a long distance to the goal and a long time. It must have been, what, 10 seconds from the foul to the goal being scored — so it’s too long also.”

FOX Sports commentator Rob Green, himself a former goalkeeper, said on the broadcast: “Surely, this is not within VAR’s realm to review this — it’s a full length of the pitch away.” Former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher went further: “If that was in the Premier League, LaLiga or Serie A, it would have been a goal even after VAR review.”

Was there VAR overreach? The honest answer is: the footballing world cannot agree, and that in itself is a problem. FOX Sports officiating expert Dr. Joe Machnik held the opposite view, arguing that a foul in the attacking phase of play which directly leads to a goal can result in that goal being disallowed, and that the simultaneous shirt-hold and step on the foot by Attia left the referee no choice once he went to the screen. The IFAB rulebook does technically support the decision. But the spirit of VAR — to correct clear and obvious errors, not to forensically audit the preceding ten seconds of every goal — felt stretched beyond recognition.

The deeper wound came moments later. Football analyst Simon Chadwick noted that in the build-up to Argentina’s winning goal, what appeared to be a foul on Salah went unchecked by VAR. “If you’re going to pull it back for Argentina on the edge of the box to disallow a goal, you have to pull it back for this one with Mo Salah,” said former Arsenal striker Ian Wright. “He’s been caught — whatever we say, it might be minimal, he’s been caught — and then they go up the other end.”

Either both are fouls, or neither is. You cannot have it both ways.

The instant assessment from the court of public opinion was swift, predictable, and — given the optics — understandable: FIFA wanted Messi to stay in the running. Egypt coach Hossam Hassan said it plainly after the match: “Perhaps they wanted to keep the world champion in the competition. Perhaps they wanted Messi to stay in the running.” José Mourinho, watching from afar, reportedly called it “daylight robbery.” The Egyptian Football Association filed a formal complaint against French referee François Letexier and his assistants the following day, stating it “cannot remain silent regarding the refereeing decisions witnessed during the match.” It was the second time in as many days that a FIFA refereeing decision had triggered an official protest — Belgium had raised concerns of their own earlier in the tournament.

Plain and simply put: the injustices continue to rain down on this World Cup. And nobody at FIFA has yet offered a convincing answer.

Egypt Get Their Goal Anyway

Credit where it is due: Egypt did not crumble. They did not protest the decision and lose their shape. They gathered themselves and went again.

In the 67th minute, Mostafa Zico found the net for real this time, with Mohamed Salah the architect — carrying the ball 25 yards before threading a precise pass into Zico’s run, who slotted home from close range to make it 2-0. It was Egypt’s second — the goal VAR had taken from them, now claimed by other means. The Pharaohs had done it the hard way, and they deserved every bit of it.

Argentina, for the first time in this tournament, found themselves staring at elimination. Two goals down, Messi misfiring, the crowd hushed. For 10 long minutes, there was no obvious way back.

Messi on a Rampage — Three Goals in Thirteen Minutes

And then the resurrection.

In the 79th minute, Cristian Romero pulled one back with a header, assisted by Messi, who had suddenly shifted into another gear entirely. The stadium found its voice again. Lisandro Martínez came agonizingly close moments later, his own header grazing the post. You could feel the shift in momentum like a physical thing — a tide turning, irreversible.

Then, at 84′, the equalizer. A poor Egyptian clearance fell to Messi on the edge of the area. He took a single touch and struck a half-volley on the half-turn. It flew past Shobeir to make it 2-2 — from the depths of despair to level terms in five minutes. The GOAT, having proved he was human, immediately reminded everyone why he is still the greatest. It was his eighth goal of the tournament, extending his own record as the all-time World Cup assists leader and keeping him clear in the race for the Golden Boot.

Egypt, to their enormous credit, did not retreat. They pressed for a winner. Salah drove forward, Zico linked up, Shobeir marshalled his defenders — they were not done. In the dying moments of regulation Egypt even appealed for a penalty as Hamdy Fathy went down under a challenge in the Argentina area — VAR reviewed it and waved it away. More Egyptian fury. More unanswered questions.

And then, at 92′, the cruelest twist of all.

Enzo Fernández got on the end of a cross from Lautaro Martínez and headed brilliantly into the bottom corner to complete one of the greatest comebacks in World Cup knockout history. Argentina had gone upfield on a counter — the same weapon Egypt had used against them all night — and buried it. The script of the entire game, reversed in the final second. The counter-attack specialists were eliminated by a counter-attack.

Egypt’s goalkeeping coach Saafan El-Saghir had to be physically restrained from going after the referee at the final whistle. Salah, composed in victory so many times for Liverpool in European nights, stood on the pitch looking into the middle distance. For the 35-year-old, this was in all likelihood his final match on the game’s biggest stage. It did not end as it deserved to.

A Team of Destiny

When the final whistle blew, Messi was in tears on the other side of the pitch — tears of relief more than joy. He had missed a penalty, been kept quiet for an hour, seen his team go 2-0 down, and then personally driven the comeback with an assist and a goal before the winning header arrived. That is not a normal human being’s range of experience compressed into 92 minutes. That is something else entirely.

Argentina move on to the quarterfinals to face Switzerland. Egypt go home having outplayed the world champions for 75 of 92 minutes, having had a legitimate goal stolen by a VAR intervention that will be debated for years, having been denied at least one penalty appeal that deserved review, and having lost 3-2 to the greatest player who has ever lived in the final seconds of a match they controlled.

Is this a team of destiny? After Atlanta, it is very hard to argue otherwise. But destiny, it turns out, sometimes needs a little help.

PKs:

This was Argentina’s 11th consecutive WC win. It may have been the most remarkable given all of the drama and controversy.

Messi’s reaction after scoring the second goal may have been his most fervent of his career, as it was pointed out by FOX’s Stuart Holden. He ran to the corner where his supporters sat and jumped vigorously into the air not once but twice. This may have been the most consequential goal of his career to date.

Mohammed Salah’s participation in the two Egyptian goals (one was annulled but the second one counted) proved that he is not just a goal scoring #9. He led both charges as a seasoned #10 and provided the key pass on both. As all great players in the past, Salah’s future is a bright one as he proved he can take a positional step backward on the pitch and still perform at a high level.

7/5/26: England 3 – Mexico 2 at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

by ceduarte1

Full Match Highlights: Mexico 2–3 England | FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16

There are football stadiums, and then there is the Azteca. It is not just a stadium but a footballing mecca. It is where Mexico has played its best football in its history. The numbers alone tell you something is different here: 70 wins, 17 draws, two losses across 89 competitive internationals since the ground opened in 1966. In the World Cup specifically, Mexico have played ten matches at the Azteca across the 1970, 1986, and 2026 tournaments and remain unbeaten — eight wins, two draws — a record no other nation has matched at a single stadium. The only blemish in competitive play in recent memory came on a September night in 2013, when Honduras won there in a World Cup qualifier — and that result was shocking enough at the time to trigger the immediate sacking of the Mexican coach. Since then, nothing. Over a decade of invincibility on that hallowed pitch.

The stadium sits roughly 2,200 metres — 7,200 feet — above sea level, making it the highest-elevation stadium of any venue used at the 2026 World Cup. It is not only the altitude but the atmosphere: the air is as thick with pressure as it is low in oxygen. Eighty-seven thousand passionate souls crammed into the bowl, every one of them willing their team forward, willing the visiting legs to tire. The English squad, for all its talent, had not played there since 1986 — the year Maradona’s hand of God sent them crashing out in this very ground. The ghost of that afternoon has lingered for forty years. On paper, this was as formidable a task as the tournament could have served up.

Mexico came out and played this game exactly as they had played every other match in this tournament: on the front foot, aggressive, loud, taking the game directly to their opponents from the first whistle. It had been a formula of perfection. El Tri became just the fourth team in World Cup history to win their first four matches without conceding a single goal. They bested South Africa in the opener, dismantled South Korea (only allowing 2 shots on goal), and easily beat Czechia. In the knock-out phase, they suffocated Ecuador — all without conceding a goal. Just as its history had proved before this game, the Azteca had been impenetrable.

And then Jude Bellingham happened.

After an intense but mostly cagey opening half-hour, the game sparked into life in the 36th minute when England hit the hosts on the counter, Bukayo Saka looping a cross to the back post where Bellingham was on hand to power home a header. The first goal Mexico had conceded in five World Cup matches. The decibel level dropped for the first time all evening. Then, just 98 seconds later, Bellingham doubled England’s advantage. Two goals in a blink. The Azteca, briefly and improbably, fell quiet. Bellingham is the first player since Diego Maradona to score two goals in a World Cup game at the Azteca. The symmetry of that fact, given England’s history here, was not lost on anyone.

Mexico were not done in the first half, of course. They never are at home. In the 42nd minute, a free kick from the left flank saw a deflected ball fall to Julián Quiñones in the box, who had no problem drilling it past Pickford. At half-time it was 2-1, and the Azteca had rediscovered its voice.

The second half is where this game became something else entirely. In the 54th minute, England defender Jarell Quansah was given a straight red card after VAR reviewed a studs-up tackle that caught the leg of Jesús Gallardo. Ten men, in the Azteca, at altitude, against a rabid home team with something to prove. The script was writing itself. Mexico would surely find a way through now.

England had other ideas. Tuchel’s side dropped into a deep, resolute low block and simply refused to yield. Just six minutes after the red card, a penalty kick gave the ten men a chance to pad their lead, after Raúl Rangel fouled Anthony Gordon in the box. Another momentary loss in concentration had cost Mexico. Harry Kane converted it with ease, scoring his sixth goal of the tournament. Three-one. With ten men. At the Azteca.

What followed was a siege. Mexico poured forward in waves, the crowd urging them on, corner after corner, cross after cross. And this is where Jordan Pickford wrote his own chapter. Raúl Jiménez rose at the back post with a header destined for the net — and Pickford denied him again with world-class stops that will be replayed for years. (Pickford had denied Jiménez diving header early on in the game with a brilliant save where he steered the ball wide on a short-hop. Bellingham, playing marvelous defense, made a last-ditch intervention to deny César Montes in what would have been a certain equaliser. The entire English team threw their bodies on the line — Dan Burn, Djed Spence, John Stones — one block, one clearance, one intervention at a time.

The game did take another huge momentum swing when Kane was penalised for a foul inside his own box, and Jiménez slotted home the resulting penalty to set up a frantic final twenty minutes. At 3-2, with a man down, the Azteca was shaking. With one of the final throws of the Mexican dice, another cross ricocheted in the box, but Stones made a well-timed sliding intervention, clearing the ball just the wrong side of the post. After eleven minutes of added time, the breakthrough Mexico needed never came.

The final whistle was met with tears streaming down Mexican faces. England buried the ghost and banished the demons of their last visit to this stadium in 1986, when that Maradona handball controversially sent them crashing out. England ended the game with an xG of just 1.55 compared to Mexico’s 1.94 across 20 shots. The data, as it so often does in this tournament, tells a story the scoreline doesn’t fully capture. Mexico were the better team for large stretches. 

But football is not played in spreadsheets. It is played in two-minute hurricanes where Jude Bellingham scores twice before the opposition can catch its breath, and in desperate last-ditch blocks in added time at altitude with ten men. England survived, again, on character and individual brilliance. Pickford, Bellingham, Kane — three names that kept England alive when the odds and the atmosphere conspired against them.

England now go to Miami on Saturday for a quarter-final clash with Erling Haaland’s Norway, who stunned five-time champions Brazil earlier in the day. For Mexico, the wait to reach a first World Cup quarter-final since 1986 goes on. El quinto partido was achieved, but now the sexto remains to be added to Mexico’s World Cup history.

As for the Azteca — it remains unbeaten, technically. But England just walked out of it with three goals and a place in the last eight. Sometimes the fortress falls without the record changing.

PKs:

The irony of Pickford’s two saves were not lost on those that followed Jimenez’s career. The fact that he almost died from a head injury on a pitch in England and yet he is still quite adept at scoring with his head is extraordinary.

Gerardo Mora has played as well as any 17 year old can play at this level. His turnover that led to England’s second goal was as costly as it was naive. Thinking he could turn against two England’s defenders, he lost the ball which initiated the break that led to Bellingham’s second goal. He will learn from this mistake and all Mexican fans hope will become one of the country’s most storied players.

World Cup 2026 Round of 32 Summaries

by ceduarte1

6/29/26: Brazil 2 — Japan 1 (Stats)

To start this game Japan opted, strangely enough, to sit in a low block and let Brazil have the ball, which the Brazilians happily complied with as they dominated the game early on. After Japan scored a surprise goal against the run of play at 29′, they retreated into an even lower block and gambled on playing defense for 70 minutes. Brazil became Spain, forced to play possession-style in compressed space. Japan’s tactic eventually faltered as Brazil equalized through a Casemiro header at 56′ from an assist by Gabriel. OT was avoided when Martinelli scored the game winner in injury time at 90+5′. Japan’s decision cost them dearly. Why would a team quite capable of attack simply defer and let the other team dictate? Because that can actually work (see Spain vs. Cape Verde post). While Japan counted on their discipline to defend, Brazil was able to resort to their legendary jogo bonito to pull out the victory. Before Martinelli’s strike, Vinicius nutmegged a Japanese defender at midfield and dribbled into the 18-yard box before shooting at goal in a canonical display of their style.

6/29/26: Germany 1 (3) — Paraguay 1 (4) (Stats)

This game was a perfect example of soccer’s paradox. How does a team that dominates every statistical category still lose? Paraguay eliminated Germany on PKs. Germany had 725 accurate passes to Paraguay’s 160, and 76% possession to Paraguay’s 24% — the most glaring examples. A potential winner by Tah was ruled no goal due to a foul on the Paraguayan keeper. While Germany outperformed Paraguay in every statistic, they underperformed in the most relevant part of the game — the one that decided the tied match — the PKs. But the losing team should never be blamed for that. It’s always a crap shoot.

6/29/26: Netherlands 1 — Morocco 1 (PKs: Morocco 3-2) (Stats)

Morocco dominated in possession stats (70% to 30%) but Netherlands scored a lightning-fast counter-attacking goal: the Dutch goalkeeper kicked it to a player in the middle, who headed it to a speedy winger who beat his man and, from the ground, passed it to Cody Gakpo, who scored. Three passes, ten seconds, a goal. Full stop. Not quite. Gakpo’s celebration was extra emotional, as he and his wife had lost a child 48 hours before kickoff. Issa Diop, Morocco’s CB, equalized on a header at 90+1′. Morocco prevailed in PKs. Justly so.

6/30/26: Mexico 2 — Ecuador 0 (Stats)

Mexico started this game like they were trailing 0-2 and desperate to get back in. It was a tactic reminiscent of Mexico’s approach against Germany in the 2018 edition when they surprised the Germans with an opening 2-1 win. Mexico sought to capitalize on the home field advantage right away, and they accomplished exactly that. This paid off at 22′ when Quiñones scored. Building from the back and then playing a direct ball over the top broke two defensive lines and launched Julián to a 1v1 opportunity against the lone defender. He did not hesitate or take an extra dribble but instead finished with a thunderous strike, driving the Azteca to a boiling point. The temperature was raised a bit more when Raúl Jiménez scored a second at 31′. After intercepting a pass and playing to his left, the ball was quickly passed back to him right in front of goal and, like Mbappé against Sweden, he took a slight touch before shooting quickly with the outside of his foot, swerving the ball away from the Ecuadorian keeper. Mexico’s engine up to that point was 17-year-old Gilberto Mora. Mexico ground out the victory in an ugly second half. Ecuador had the bulk of possession but did not really threaten at all. The Azteca, and all of Mexico, partied all night after Mexico won their first knockout victory since 1986, finally getting the “quinto partido.” In the process, Mexico set a record for winning the first 4 games without conceding a goal, becoming only the 5th team in World Cup history to do so.

7/1/26: England 2 — Congo 1 (Stats)

Congo scored a whippet of a goal early and hoped to hold off the Three Lions until Harry Kane finally got one past the Congolese keeper, who had up to that point played the game of his life making one astonishing save after another. England’s depth proved to be too much and wore Congo down. The best example was when Rashford was substituted by Saka — one superstar player for another. That wore Congo out. In the 88th, Kane, surrounded by three defenders, dribbled to his right away from all of them and delivered the winning goal. Kane, Mbappé, Messi — these are the elite players of the World Cup. They won games for their teams when the pressure was highest. One of these three teams should now be favored to win it all. England faced Mexico at the Azteca. We would find out if the vaunted stadium is truly one of the hardest in which to play the host country. Mexico better hope another Maracanazo is not in store. England last played there against Argentina in 1986. The ghost of Maradona would loom large in British minds.

7/1/26: Belgium 3 — Senegal 2 (Stats)

What is the most dangerous lead in soccer? It is a well-worn cliché that it is 2-nil, of course. Belgium pulled off another 3-2 win at the World Cup — in 2022, they came back against Japan in the second most exciting game of that tournament, second only to the final. Senegal owned the Red Devils for 80 minutes before Lukaku scored twice to equalize. Tielemans scored on a PK in the dying minutes of extra time, sparing everyone from the dreaded shootout. The PK was highly controversial and may not have been warranted. It was the second game of the day in which a superstar saved his country by scoring two goals.

7/1/26: USA 2 — Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 (Stats)

BiH had one good chance early and one late. In between it was a sandwich of total US dominance. Not even a dubious red card to the US’s best player, Christian Pulisic, made a difference. The US’s Stillman scored on a cracking free kick to double their lead. The card would hurt the US moving forward as they faced Belgium.

7/2/26: Spain 3 — Austria 0 (Stats)

Two things stood out in this game for La Roja: they maintained their highly elevated possession game but played at a much higher tempo. Not surprisingly, Spain had the highest average percentage of possession — 69% — of any team in the World Cup. But unlike in group play, Spain played faster and with more urgency. Oyarzabal scored at 38′ but they buzzed at the Austrian goal like bees at their queen’s nest, hitting posts and forcing saves from the keeper in a hurried but purposeful frenzy. They could easily have scored two or three. Lamine Yamal returned to his dynamic self after his hamstring injury. Rodri also looked better, playing at a faster tempo. In that regard, Spain resembled France more than their usual methodical selves — meaning they were more direct. No 50 passes per shot attempt. That would no longer cut it. Second-half dominance continued. Porro scored on a header at 67′ and Oyarzabal scored a second later in the half. Spain was on the rise, similar to Argentina in 2022. After a slow start, La Roja played their best game and started to peak at the right time.

7/2/26: Portugal 2 — Croatia 1 (Stats)

It was a vibrant match with the best back-and-forth of the Cup so far, with pace and quality on both ends. Portugal opened the scoring and Ronaldo equalized with a surgical PK. This may have been the most controversial game, especially for Croatian fans. The PK itself came on a clear grab of the back, albeit with very slight contact. Croatia equalized at 98′ when a cross appeared to involve both a Croatian flick and the back of a Portuguese defender before being handled by a Croatian player. Was he offside or wasn’t he? That will be debated for a long time. CR7 and Portugal advanced, but because they had conceded the group to Colombia, they faced rival Iberian Spain — a rematch of the UEFA Nations League final from the prior year. It was a shame one of these giants would eliminate the other.

7/3/26: Egypt 1 (4) — Australia 1 (2) (Stats)

The Australians made two mistakes: they changed keepers for PKs, and had two center-backs take two of the first three kicks — both missed. Mo Salah with a Panenka — a gorgeous and audacious take. Love anyone with the audacity to do that.

7/3/26: Argentina 3 — Cape Verde 2 (AET) (Stats)

At the onset of this game, who would have thought that a country of 500,000 people could possibly beat the reigning World Cup champion, with the best player on the planet still performing at a high level, and with most of his mates still around seeking the vaunted repeat? The resistance lasted almost half an hour. Messi scored at 29′ on an exquisite trap of a long pass and a quick shot. Messi channeled his inner Michelle Obama — when the keeper goes low, you go high. As great as Vozinha had been, he was no match for the GOAT on this play. Impeccable technique from the all-time World Cup scoring leader, with 20 tallies and Mbappé in hot pursuit with 18. Apparently Messi is a late World Cup goal-scoring bloomer. He netted only 6 in his first 3 World Cups and has now exploded for 13 in the last two. The wine analogy fits like a glove. The second half was a surprise. Cape Verde equalized at 59′. Messi was denied by Vozinha on a free kick — as Vozinha was still organizing the wall, Messi quickly took the kick and angled it to the right post. Vozinha raced to it and deflected the ball out at the last second. If you were keeping score of the personal matchup, it was now 1-1. The game ended knotted at 1 at the end of regulation. At 92′ of extra time Lisandro Martínez righted the ship with a shot roofed into Vozinha’s left after collecting a Mac Allister flick to the back post from a corner kick. At 103′, stunner v2.0 — an unknown player named Sidny Lopes Cabral scored a “bend it like Beckham” postage-stamp curling missile to tie the game at 2. WTVF!! (V is for Veritable). At 111′ the normal order of things was restored when Romero headed a corner kick off a Cape Verde defender and past Vozinha — officially credited as an own goal. Minutes later Cabral almost scored again, but his free kick, destined for the back of the net, was saved by Emiliano Martínez — possibly the save of the Cup. And if that wasn’t enough, Martínez made another save, barely getting to a loose ball in the box ahead of a Cape Verde player. Martínez delivered again, clutch save after clutch save. Remember his kick save that staved off France in extra time of the 2022 Final. A remarkable game. The best and most dramatic game since the 2022 World Cup Final.

Argentina Survive Cape Verde

by ceduarte1

7/3/26: Argentina 3 — Cape Verde 2 (AET)
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Full Match Highlights

How is it possible that a nation of 500,000 souls — roughly the population of Fresno, California — nearly toppled the reigning World Cup champions, the most decorated squad on the planet, anchored by the greatest player who has ever laced up a boot. The Blue Sharks fought back from a goal down not once, but twice, and looked every bit Argentina’s equals as the game wore on, with the favorites fading in the second half and extra time while Cape Verde only grew stronger — physically and in belief — the longer it went. Football can be a magnificent, cruel, and yet beautiful game. Al Jazeera

Cape Verde had held mighty Spain scoreless for 90 minutes in the opener for both teams. In this game, the resistance lasted a respectable 29 minutes. Then Messi happened, as Messi tends to do. Lisandro Martínez lofted a perfectly weighted pass toward him; Messi snuck behind the Cape Verde defense on a well-timed run, fielded the ball with sublime skill on a short-hop, and then quickly hammered a finish into the roof of the net past goalkeeper Vozinha for a 1-0 lead. Messi channeled his inner Michelle Obama — when the keeper goes low, you go high. Impeccable, inevitable, infuriating for the opposition. That was his 20th World Cup goal, extending his all-time record and moving two ahead of Mbappé on the all-time list, who is in hot pursuit with 18. Watch the goal. FOX SportsFOX Sports

Messi is a late World Cup bloomer of the finest vintage. He netted six goals in his first three tournaments before erupting with 13 in the last two. The wine analogy fits like a glove. He is, at 39, somehow getting better at the highest-stakes moments. He also became the first player in history to make 30 World Cup appearances tonight. At some point the superlatives simply run dry. YouTube

The second half, however, belonged to the extraordinary. Cape Verde equalized at 59′ when Deroy Duarte slammed home past Emiliano Martínez to send the Cape Verdean pocket of fans into delirium and silence the overwhelmingly pro-Argentina crowd in Miami. Then came the great Messi-vs.-Vozinha subplot that would have been worthy of its own short film. Messi was denied by Vozinha on a free kick — as he was still organizing the wall, Messi quickly took the kick, and angled it toward the right post. Vozinha, all 40 years of him, raced across and deflected it out at the last second. If you’re keeping score of the personal duel, it was 1-1. The game ended knotted at 1 at the close of regulation.

Then extra time delivered something nobody was ready for.

At 92′, Lisandro Martínez — the same man who’d assisted Messi’s opener — roofed a left-footed effort into the net at the near post from a corner kick situation, seemingly restoring order. The previously silenced Argentinians, sent on a frenzy of joy. For about eleven minutes. Because at 103′, an unknown left back named Sidney Lopes Cabral intrepidly inserted himself into the script.

The Cabral goal had come at the end of a passing sequence that started deep in Cape Verde’s half, involved Vozinha, and saw them pass their way out of an aggressive Argentine press with a calmness and assuredness that no World Cup debutant should have against opposition like this. Then Cabral — a left back, playing as a left back — jinked inside and curled a pearler with his right foot into the far top corner. Postage stamp. Bend it like Beckham. WTVF!! (V is for Veritable.) Watch the Golazo. Lionel Messi stood there, staring sheepishly into space. Emiliano Martínez looked around, disbelief etched on his face. Alexis Mac Allister couldn’t bear to look up. This was not how the plot was supposed to unfold. The scrappy Cape Verdeans would simply not be denied. YouTubeYouTube

Normal order was finally, mercifully restored again at 111′ when Romero’s header glanced off Cape Verde defender Diney Borges and crept past Vozinha into the far corner — officially credited as an own goal — to make it 3-2. Surely this was the coup de grace. But Cape Verde wasn’t having it. Cabral nearly scored again, his thunderous free kick destined for the net before goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez pulled off possibly the save of the tournament, barely getting a touch on a loose ball in the box ahead of a charging Cape Verde attacker. Clutch save after clutch save. Remember his save that staved off France in the 2022 Final? The man is constitutionally incapable of wilting under pressure. thespread

Argentina’s xG on the night was 2.16 against Cape Verde’s 0.45 — and yet here we were, in extra time, panting, hearts pounding, the whole footballing world transfixed. The data said Argentina should have won comfortably. The game said otherwise. thespread

A remarkable match. Cape Verde — the smallest nation by land area ever to qualify for a World Cup, with a population roughly 1% the size of Argentina’s — go home with heads held impossibly high and a country’s worth of stories to tell their grandchildren. Their coach Bubista summed it up gracefully: “Argentina is a world champion and they have one of the best players in the world, so that in itself speaks of the challenge it was for our team to overcome them. We want to evolve so that we can have more opportunities to face the so-called big dogs of the tournament.” NBC SportsNBC Sports

Long live the Blue Sharks. Argentina advance to face Egypt in Atlanta. The GOAT lives to fight another day.

The best and most dramatic game since the 2022 World Cup Final.

Barcelona and Newcastle go old school

by ceduarte1

There was a time in world football when you could almost identify a team’s nationality simply by watching them play.

The English played with speed, power, long balls into space and an almost stubborn preference for directness. Playing for the set piece was preferred over long term buildup since they were very good at scoring from those plays; direct kicks and corner kicks were the, pardon the pun, cornerstone of the English game.

Spain, on the other hand, invented a style that was a hybrid of the Italian and Brazilian schools, and once that was pioneered by the tiki-taka style that originated in Barcelona. By the early 2000’s, the Spanish style was all about unlimited possession, using a seemingly interminable sequence of short passes that pinged all over the field. Holding the ball was seemingly more important than scoring. The goal was to wear out the opposition who had to defend for the majority of the game, a task that renders not only physical, but more importantly, mental exhaustion on opponents.

In the modern era of globalized squads and managers trained in the same tactical schools, those distinctions have largely blurred. Clubs borrow ideas from everywhere. A Spanish team can counterattack like an English one. An English club can suffocate opponents with possession like a Catalan side.

But occasionally, football reminds us of what it used to look like.

Barcelona’s 1–1 draw with Newcastle in the Champions League on March 10 felt like one of those reminders.

Because for ninety minutes, it looked almost like a duel between national football identities.

Newcastle played the quintessential English game. For a large part of the first half, pace and energy was prevalent. Direct balls into space. Power through the midfield. When they won possession they wasted no time turning defense into attack, driving forward with the kind of vertical urgency that has defined English football for decades.

Barcelona, meanwhile, were unmistakably Spanish. Possession first. Patience paramount. The ball moved side to side as they searched for angles and seams, preferring elaborate buildup over sudden bursts forward. If Newcastle’s instinct was to launch the ball into open space and chase it, Barcelona’s instinct was to slow the game down, control it, and carve their openings with finesse.

For the first fifteen minutes, Newcastle’s style looked overwhelming.

They came out like a storm — pressing, sprinting, forcing Barcelona into hurried passes and uncomfortable clearances. The tempo was ferocious, the kind of pace that makes technically gifted teams feel rushed and slightly disoriented.

But that kind of fury is rarely sustainable.

Gradually Barcelona began to regain control of the ball and, with it, the rhythm of the game. Possession tilted back toward the Catalans as they circulated the ball through midfield and attempted to impose their usual geometry on the match.

Yet just before halftime Newcastle reminded everyone what their preferred version of the game looked like.

They surged forward again, attacking with speed and purpose, whipping balls into dangerous areas and winning corner after corner. By the break they had accumulated six corners despite having roughly 13% less possession than Barcelona — a perfect statistical summary of the contrasting approaches. Barcelona held the ball; Newcastle made the moments count. 

From the restart until roughly the 80th minute, the match settled into something of a stalemate. Barcelona passed, probed, recycled possession. Newcastle stayed organized and disciplined, choosing their moments rather than constantly chasing the game.

Even the TUDN commentators made the same observation that was evident to anyone watching: Newcastle had managed to dictate the rhythm of the match. Barcelona had possession, yes, but not control in the way they usually enjoy it. The English side had slowed the game just enough to disrupt Barcelona’s brand of football.

Chances were scarce. The game felt tense rather than explosive.

And then, late in the match, Newcastle finally found the solution.

In the 86th minute the breakthrough came not through some elaborate tactical masterpiece but through one of football’s simplest combinations. A quick give-and-go opened a sliver of space. A low, hard cross flashed across the penalty area and found Newcastle’s Harvey Barnes unmarked at the far post for a simple tap in.

It was brutally efficient — the kind of direct attacking sequence that had defined Newcastle’s play all night.

The Magpies had finally solved the Barcelona defense. And it looked like they would take a one goal lead into Spain for the return leg.

But football has a cruel sense of timing.

Deep into stoppage time, in the 94th minute, Barcelona found their lifeline. Dani Olmo received the ball just inside the penalty area and executed a subtle but devastating piece of skill: a feint to the left that froze the defender, followed by a quick dribble to the right that drew the inevitable foul and ensuing PK.

Lamine Yamal stepped up and finished it with the calm that has already become his trademark. The equalizer came with surprising ease, the stadium erupting in relief as much as celebration.

And just like that, a match Newcastle had largely controlled slipped away.

In truth, this was one of Barcelona’s poorest performances in many years. They struggled with Newcastle’s pace, looked uncomfortable under pressure, and never truly established the dominance that usually accompanies their possession-heavy style.

Yet somehow they escaped with a draw.

Football is often like that. One team plays closer to its ideal game, but the scoreline refuses to cooperate.

Newcastle will leave wondering how they did not win. Barcelona will go back home knowing they were fortunate. The second leg suddenly looks far more interesting than anyone might have expected.

Extra Time

Olmo’s goal was a result of a piece of tactical genius from Hansi Flick. Olmo came in late in the game and played the first 10 minutes at the back, using the Volpian buildup where a 6 plays on the last line of defense to help with the build of play from the back. This is odd given that Olmo is neither a defender or a midfielder but a forward. Having put the Newcastle defense to sleep, Olmo quietly slipped to the front, where his sudden move at the top of the box drew the PK that would produce the equalizer.

US Hockey wins Olympic Gold

by ceduarte1

Canada’s best Barcelona impersonation wasn’t enough

Jack Hughes scores gold medal game winner in overtime

It was a week that will live in U.S. hockey lore, not because the stars aligned in some cosmic upset, but because of the beautiful, maddening, unpredictable alchemy that is Olympic ice hockey.

Canada came into that gold-medal game looking every bit the favorite. From the drop of the puck they looked like the better team — faster in transition, more precise on the breakout, more creative in the offensive zone. But in hockey, just as in football, Canada’s speed and beauty of their game – suffocating forechecking, crisp line changes, immaculate puck control – is reminiscent of how FC Barcelona dominate teams.

But just like Barcelona at their peak, you can be beautiful without winning. In the Olympic hockey tournament just as in the Champions League, aesthetics can enthrall, it can fascinate, but in the end it isn’t always triumphant.

Because in hockey, unlike almost any other sport, a hot goaltender can win a game almost by himself. And on this night in Milan’s Santagiulia arena, lightning struck between the pipes for the United States.

For 46 years the U.S. had waited for this moment. Forty-six years since a men’s hockey team had stood atop the Olympic podium. But unlike 1980 — when amateurs toppled professionals and hearts soared in disbelief — this time the roster was stacked with NHL players, battle-tested pros who make their living on the frozen chessboard. So while the drought was long, the result wasn’t quite as seismic as that earlier miracle. This was heavyweights trading blows, not college upstart kids shocking the world.

Despite trailing for most of two periods, Canada was the superior team. They controlled the tempo like a possession-obsessed soccer side, carving the ice with patience and precision. The Canadians cycled the puck, trapped defenders in their own zone, and skated with the confidence of a unit accustomed to dictating every inch. Yet they trailed after just 6 minutes when Matt Boldy of the Minnesota Wild split two Canadian defenders at the blue line by lifting the puck into the air (a very inventive move) and rushing in on the goaltender before scoring a nice goal. 

After the goal, the Americans, by contrast, were the counter-attack specialists. Not by choice but by necessity. When you play the Canada’s of the game, you can’t often play on the offensive. The Canadians are so good that they force you to play the way the US did: they defended deep, clogged the neutral zone, and waited. Waited for Canadian mistakes, waited for seams to open, waited for their moment to strike. This was tactical pragmatism at its best — the hockey equivalent of a side that absorbs wave after wave before springing forward on counter-attacks with ruthless efficiency. It wasn’t aesthetic dominance; it was structural resistance.

The lead lasted late into the second period, when Canada’s Cale Makar blasted a low hard shot into the far post. The Canadian pressure finally paid off.

That was the only goal US goalie Connor Hellebuyck would concede.

From the first period to the dying seconds, he kept Canada at bay with saves that felt increasingly improbable. Midway through the opening frame, with traffic crowding his crease, he flashed the left pad to deny a backdoor tap-in that had half the arena rising in anticipation. Early in the second, he stared down a clean breakaway — gloves low, shoulders square — and snatched a rising wrist shot out of the air as if plucking it from a shelf. And in the third, protecting a one-goal lead, he lunged post-to-post to stone a one-timer on the power play, the puck ricocheting off his blocker and harmlessly into the corner as the Canadian bench threw its collective head back in disbelief.

He didn’t just stop the puck — he stole certainty. Every save bent the emotional arc of the game. Every denial tightened the pressure on the skaters in red and white. Canada kept pushing, kept probing, kept playing like the better team. But the crease had become a locked door.

With the game deadlocked at 1, overtime ensued. There is no better spectacle than he Olympic hockey overtime period, when spaces are enlarged by having 2 less skaters. It is a spectacle to watch, a free-flowing exposition of speed and moves unhindered by excessive physicality. It’s too bad it doesn’t last very long most of the time. Such is the skill of the players that the advantage always goes to the offense.

The extra period lasted only a minute and 41 seconds. Connor McDavid, considered by many the finest hockey player in the world (he routinely wins all of the skills competitions and has been the NHL’s leading scorer for the past five years), went in and got a shot on goal, where Hellebuyck stymied him.  The US countered, as they had all night, and ended up with a 3-1 break after one of the Canadian players gambled at the US blue line trying to steal the puck. Moments later, Jack Hughes, all alone on the left side, fired a wicket shot past Canada’s Jordan Binnington.

In most sports, the MVP is a scorer. In hockey, sometimes the MVP is the last line of defense — the masked figure who can warp probability for sixty minutes. And on this night, the best player on the ice wore American colors.

Canada may have been superior across the sheet — in possession, in territorial play, in sustained attack. But hockey uniquely allows one transcendent performance in goal to outweigh all of that. The position carries disproportionate gravity; when a netminder ascends into that rarefied zone, the entire geometry of the sport shifts.

So when the final horn sounded and the Americans celebrated gold, it wasn’t theft. It wasn’t fortune smiling blindly. It was a deserved victory anchored by the single most dominant force in the game.

Because in ice hockey, if the best player on the ice is your goalie, that fact alone can be everything.

Barca’s Incredible Week

by ceduarte1

Loses 7-6 on aggregate in Champions League Semifinal to Inter Milan

Beats Real Madrid 4-3 in the last El Clasico of La Liga.

The Champions League Leg

Socrates, Brazil’s soccer and philosopher once said about his country’s style: “Beauty comes first, Victory is secondary. What matters is joy.” Those legendary and eloquent words best describe what transpired in the two legs of Inter’s win over Barcelona in the Champions League semifinal.

Socrates’ philosophy was expressed by Inter’s coach Simone Inzaghi in another way:“I am extremely proud of the performance my squad has put in, because tonight we faced one of the most offensive and beautiful teams in the world.”

From whatever perspective you viewed this game, as either a fan of the defeated Barcelona team espousing Socrates, or as a fan of the victorious Inter Milan side who must have held their breath the entire time and come away delighted at a victory that they probably shouldn’t have attained, one thing is abundantly clear: these two legs will go down as one of the best and most entertaining in Champions League history. The two matches were not only dramatic to witness, they were also beautiful to watch.

The sheer number of goals, lead changes (and their accompanying momentum swings and dramatic turns) evinced a drama that is not often seen at the latter stages of Champions League competition, when more defensive strategies tend to rule the day. Because teams are so averse to losing, they tend to not take unnecessary risks, especially late in games that are tied, favoring advancement over anything else. Flick’s teams do not play that way. They do not betray their style; they double down on it. Because they do not ever betray their style, their defensive high-line persists, and they tend to also give up a lot of goals. Simply put, Flick’s mantra is we will outscore you.

While this strategy has worked for Barca all season long, in the Champions League return leg,  Inter were up to the task. In a see-saw battle (Inter were up 2-0, Barca stormed back to lead 3-2, Inter upped Barcelona with 2 unanswered goals for the final 4-3), Barcelona were not content with managing their 3-2 advantaged and instead continued to insist on a 4th instead of just defending, and in the depths of injury time, were stunned by an improbable and unbelievably highly skilled goal from Inter’s center back. The Milan defender, Francisco Acerbi had scored all of 2 goals in 37 appearances in the Champions League, but in the 93rd minute his sublime redirection of fast moving cross into the box (with his wrong foot no less) just eluded Czesny left hand for the 3-3 equalizer that would send the game into extra time. Drama this good can only be conceived in the writing room. The surreal goal gave Inter the momentum and they didn’t relinquish it. In extra time, Inter scored a very Barca like goal, pinging the ball inside of the penalty box with stunning precision before one of their substitutes, Davide Frattesi received the ball and waited a slight moment before firing the ball past the Barcelona goalie. The irony of that goal must have been too much on the Barca players. While they continued to look for the tying goal that would take them to penalty kicks, one couldn’t help but observe how tired, both physically and emotionally, the Barcelona players were at that point.

Inter had somehow flipped the script on Barcelona and that led them to the Champions League final against PSG, a team, curiously enough, that plays a style very similar to Barcelona.

The El Clasico Leg

Content upcoming…

El Clásico Delivers Again

by ceduarte1

Barcelona triumphs 3-2 in extra time of Copa del Rey Final

It doesn’t matter what year it is played, how each team is faring or the makeup of the rosters of each team. Because of its nature and position as the greatest darby in the Spanish league, if not one of the best rivalries in world club football, El Clasico always produces a great viewing spectacle. The players understand that this is one of the most important games they will play in a given year, and the only other more important ones are games against the same rival that may occur in other competitions, whether that is La Copa, or La Liga, or Champions League.

The best illustration of this occurred in 2011, when In a single 18-day period, Real Madrid and Barcelona played four El Clásico matchups. These included one La Liga game, a Copa del Rey final, and two legs of the Champions League semi-finals. This was considered a unique and intense period in the rivalry’s history.

Watching Barcelona play Real Madrid not only produces great drama on the pitch, but what it always reveals, without failure, is the distinct philosophies of the two great Spanish clubs: Barca’s legendary possession football coupled with a enhanced version of line breaking passes (Flick’s tweak) versus Real Madrid’s stout defense, lightning fast counter-attacks, and mastery in set pieces. Barcelona’s commitment to its philosophy of creating great players that learn its style to Real’s philosophy of buying the best and integrating them into a whole. The clash of styles is as classic as the rivalry itself; it’s what gives the rivalry its special meaning.

Of course, as this year has now proven, when Barcelona is loaded with generational talent, no other team in the world can match the style that they invented and continue to perfect. (Consider that if Barcelona played Man City, the team that most recently is the best imitator of the Barcelona school, mostly because its coach Pep Guardiola was reared in it, I would fully expect Barca to have an edge in possession, albeit a small one.) And when they are on top of their game, Barcelona is a difficult club to beat.

Barcelona’s record against their rivals this year may be unparalleled in history. In an early meeting in October 2024, Barcelona ripped the Merengues 4-0 at the Bernabeu, a win which had followed a similar demolition of Bayern Munich (4-1) in a Champions League game just days before. In January, in Jeddah Saudi Arabia, Mbappe got Real Madrid off to a fast start but in the end it was another resounding win (5-2) for the Barcelona squad. When I first started watching soccer, when I lived in Spain in 1974, Barcelona, led by Johan Cruyff, crushed Real Madrid 5-0 in the Spanish capital. (That game and season marked the start of the modern day Barcelona team that we know today.) But more than one lopsided victories between the two titans in a single season are rare.

Early on in this encounter it was obvious that the aforementioned patterns would prevail. Barcelona would have the ball and Real would sit back in their defensive block and counter with lightning speed. That’s been the time tested strategy against Barcelona, mostly because teams don’t really have any other choice. As good as Real look against other teams, in the sense that they can outpossess other teams and force them to counter, they can never seem to do this against teams that practice the Barcelona style, whether that is the Blaugrana itself, or other incarnations of that style such as Man City or even Arsenal (the team that just recently vanquished them in Champions League).

This game was intense from the beginning with Barca getting the lead 1-0 before Real scored two unanswered, and then Barca scoring the last 2 to finally win it. Three lead changes with a final goal in overtime was as much as any fan could ask for.

In the first half it was all Barcelona possession and Courtois making big saves, one of his finest on a header from Kounde. But in the 27th minute, Yamal proved why he’s the most lethal player in world football. Even with three men guarding him on the right side of the box, he still crossed it to Pedri just outside of the box, and the passing genius showed off his finishing touch with a shot that no goalie in the world was going to stop, not even Courtois.

Real’s best moments, and a sign of things to come, came in the 40th minute when Bellingham scored but it was annulled because he was offside. In the dying moments, Vini finally having found his groove, charged in on goal with speed before being fouled. The referee initially signalled a PK but it wa subsequently overruled by an offside.

In the second half, Vini had two shots early on forcing Szczęsny into his first two saves. Mbappe’s introduction into the second half levelled this match as Real created 5 chances in 10 minutes. On one of those Mbappe dribbled three Barca players and was fouled by DeJong, who grabbed his arm to gain a tactical foul rather than letting the Frenchman blow past the Barca defesne. Mbappe finished this off with a low hard free kick that bounced off the left post for the equalizing goal.

In the 74th minute, the perfect illustration of the stylistic differences materialized. As Barca pinged the ball from side to side looking for the perfect chance, Madrid stole the ball and mounted a 70m counter attack with Vini generating another scoring chance. While that didn’t go in, Tchouameni scored on the subsequent header from a perfect Guler corner at 77’. It was the 6th corner of the half for Real Madrid.

In the 83rd minute, Ferran latched on to a perfectly weighted ball from Yamal (the kid also has prodigious passing talent) enabled him to beat both Ruddiger and Courtois to level the score, and to send the game into overtime.

A perfect example of Barca’s more advanced passing occurred in the second half when they made two perfect 30-40 m passes to Raphinha that broke Real’s defense apart. Raphina put both balls wide (it wasn’t his best game) but the constant pressure exerted on Madrid paid off at the end.

With the score tied at 2-2 in extra time and PK’s looming, It was an uncharacteristic mistake from Luka Modric that gave Kounde his chance to shine. A clearing pass from deep in defense right into the middle of the field was intercepted by Kounde, who dribbled it once before striking the ball perfectly with a low hard shot to Courtois’ right and into the corner of the net. Even the best eventually succumb to the suffocating Barcelona press.

Although Barca always produce a great stream of talent, Barcelona’s current homebrewed stars Yamal, Pedri, Gavi, Cubarsi along with imports Raphina, Lewandoski, DeJong (from Ajax which is a similar academy system to Barcelona due mostly to Cruyff’s work in building both) and Ferran constitute a side that may match the great Barcelona teams of 2008-2011. 

Starting off Barcelona’s most talented youngster in a generation, Lamine Yamal, who at only 17, looks like the second coming of Messi. A player able to break down opposing defenders at will with incredible footwork, speed, and a finishing touch that gets more polished with every minute he plays. Lamine himself may not like the comparisons, but they are now not only becoming irresistible but also more plausible. Pedri is like a hybrid of Iniesta, Xavi and Busquets, a player with the uncanny ability, characteristic of all the Masia academy players, to slow the game down, yet explosive enough to dribble past defenders and then deliver the most perfectly weighted passes into space. What made Pedri especially good this year was the number of  defensive line breaking passes he made to lead La Liga. (But Pedri is not alone in midfield. Both Casado and DeJong also are great at line breaking passes. The Barca trio is in the top 4 of most line breaking passes in La Liga, with the bulk of their breaks in the second line category.) All of this rich midfield play has enabled Barca’s wingers Raphinha and especially Yamal to be on the receiving end of these perfect spot passes. Ferran and Lewandoski are perfect 9’s, which are very suited to playing Hanzi Flick’s more direct style (i.e. longer and more line breaking passes) than Barcelona has played before since it gives them better finishing opportunities.

With one trophy down, Barcelona are now looking for the treble. La Liga title is within reach as is the Champions League title. With the team that Barcelona has and the way they have been wielding their style upon their opponents, anything is possible.

Arsenal Pyrrhic Victory over Real Madrid

by ceduarte1

Arsenal defeats Real Madrid 3-0 in the first leg of Champions quarterfinals.

Return Leg

Let’s start by making a bold prediction. Real Madrid, down by 3 goals to a very good Arsenal team, a team that is second in the world’s toughest league, a team led by Spaniard Mikel Arteta, a team that plays an elegant style of football reminiscent of the Barcelona glory teams from 2008-2011, will make an astonishing comeback and defeat the Gunners before it is all said and done and advance to the semi-finals.

This prediction is based on both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The quantitative part of the equation is based on the fact that Real Madrid have won this competition 15 times and Arsenal have never won, and also because Real has proven itself, over the last decade, to be a Premier League vanquisher (Liverpool twice, Man City twice). Real Madrid have played in 502 UCL games and won 302 with 85 draws and 112 losses, so they only lose 22% of the time. I was unable to find statistics for how many home games Real has lost in this competition but extrapolating from the numbers above, it would seem fair to say that Real has probably only lost at home 50 times in 55 years of competition, or only about 1 a year. So their chances of winning at home are very high again.

The qualitative side is simple. It is not based on any tactical analysis and is simply a gut feel. It is based on the fact that Real Madrid are the best team in the history of club soccer, the most successful in this particular competition, and also because the return leg is in their home stadium, a place where they rarely lose in Champions League (see above). Real vanquished Liverpool in a somewhat similar manner in 2023 when it scored 5 straight goals after the Reds took a 2-0 nil lead in the first 15 minutes in the first leg at Anfield. Although the circumstances are somewhat different here, these Madrid players know what they are capable of simply because they have done it recently before (see video highlights at bottom).

This squad, after having been embarrassed in London, will be more than ready in the return leg. Winning championships is in the DNA of this team; their success in this tournament is simply unsurpassed. When a player signs on to play for the Merengues, they know the history, they know the height of expectations and responsibility placed on them, and most often than not, the players rise to the challenge, no matter the obstacle. The fans, accustomed to Real’s winning pedigree, always create an extremely hostile environment to away teams. The atmosphere next Tuesday at the Bernabeu should be as electric as ever given the obstacle the Merengues are facing. By the time Real get that first goal, it will be increasingly difficult for them to withstand the tsunami that is about to hit them. The first 15 minutes will be key. We will find out very soon how good the Gunners game travels.

First Leg

Arsenal truly dominated this game, creating numerous chances and forcing numerous saves  from Courtois to keep the game scoreless in the first half. Arsenal had 69% possession in the first 15 minutes of the game.

The second half explosion was triggered by Declan Rice, a solid midfield player who had never scored a goal from a free kick, yet managed to score two in a 15 minute span and made history as the first player to score two set pieces in a single Champions League game. (One has to wonder why a player who never has scored off a free kick got the chance to do it not only once but twice. Arteta must have seen or sensed something during the practice sessions). It is important to note that, on the first kick, Courtois made the mistake of only placing 4 players on the wall and Rice was able to curve the ball around the limited wall, the ball bending viciously and seeming to accelerate around the last man as if it were a rocket gaining speed from the gravitational pull of a planet. The second kick was your classic upper corner “postage stamp” goal and was simply unstoppable. My favorite goal was actually Mikel Merino’s sublime finish on a pullback cross from Leandro Trossard. The technical level of that goal was simply amazing. The pace and placement of the ball was of the highest level. Most often than not, those shots go either wide (skewed by too much placement) or high (too much power).

Mike Arteta described this game as “the biggest of his managerial career” and his team delivered. But that’s the beauty of the Champions League format. One game isn’t enough to finish the job. You have to perform at your highest level in two games against the best clubs in the world. The second leg will now surely surmount the first as the most important. If Arsenal can win at Madrid, they will truly have earned it.

Real Madrid overcomes Liverpool’s fast start

Manchester City Victim of its own Success

by ceduarte1
Real Madrid conquers Manchester City again

Manchester City against Real Madrid has now become, in the infamous words of ESPN, an “instant classic”, or for those more familiar with the English terminology, a Champions League “darby” of sorts. These two teams have squared off the past 3 years in the Champions League in two-legged affairs. The budding rivalry has been elevated to the highest level because not only are these two teams amongst the top clubs in the world, but because the games that they have played have themselves been of the best technical quality, highly entertaining, and quite dramatic. But what has become the most fascinating facet has been the clash of two radically different football philosophies.

Pep Guardiola’s City is the third-generation or version of the style first introduced in Guardiola’s early years at Barcelona, a team that played a style commonly known then and now as tiki-taka (The Spanish team of the 2008-2012 era, which was heavily populated with Barca players, also was renowned and credited with playing that but the style was nascent in the Cruyff Barcelona Academy system). Guardiola then took that system to Bayern Munich in the early 2010’s and finally to City starting in 2016. Guardiola is known to have distilled tiki-taka into its simplest formula: 

“In the world of football, there is only one secret: I’ve got the ball or I haven’t.”  

Guardiola’s teams throughout the years have perfected the left-hand part of the equation in his succinct statement to the point that each team, each generation, is substantially better at the art of possession football than its predecessor. They have the ball the most of any team in the modern era and they are able to do that against any team, from the bottom feeders of the EPL to the very best teams of all of Europe. One of the key factors in this strategy is the ability to win the ball back quickly once possession is lost. This has the effect of not only demoralizing the opposition but more importantly, inducing huge levels of physical and mental fatigue as it forces them to play defense not only for a majority of the game but also for long stretches of time (i.e. minutes) during the game. Guardiola’s teams vaunted high press defensive techniques are just as important of an ingredient to the success of the style, albeit not as aesthetically pleasing, and hence not as glorified.

So what to do if you’re up against a team of City’s caliber ? They are going to have the ball the majority of the time so your only option is to low-press, which is colloquially known as “parking the bus.” It is not a tactic that teams wish to employ (well unless you’re Italian and love catenaccio). It is a tactic that is forced upon them by the quality of the opposition. City imposes its will on you to the point that this becomes your only resource.

But as with any tactic there is a counter tactic. City’s ever increasing dominance of possession over the years has forced teams to retrench farther and farther back into their own goal, thus shrinking the available field of play. Teams used to play defense in their own half, a distant luxury as City presses further and further upfield with their vaunted possession; nowadays it is common for defenses to pack inside of a 30 to 35 yard box from their own goal-line. This counter tactic has now forced City to try to create offense in ever shrinking real estate than ever before. The other aspects of tiki-taka, the false 9 and positional play, tend to have diminishing results as the space in which you are forced to operate is reduced. When playing teams of substantially lesser abilities, which really, in this context, means a less cohesive defensive shape and the ability of its players to adhere to it, City is able to eventually break teams down and win at a high percentage.

Real’s counter was to exploit the high-press with lightning quick counter-attacks with passes over the high-press into space where one of their two speedy and highly-skilled front-runners, Vinny or Rodrygo could run onto the ball and hold it long enough while being defended by more than one player, and then find an open teammate deep in City territory to create opportunities.

Both goals were perfect examples of each team’s brilliantly planned tactics. Real, knowing that they had to score on City’s ground, got their goal early (12’). Carvajal’s long high pass went to Jude Bellingham, who controlled it deftly deep into City territory and away from the press. Bellingham initiated a passing sequence that went through Valverde, then Vinnie, before the latter’s cross found Rodrygo open in the middle, who scored on a second bite of the cherry after Ederson saved his initial shot. After that it was all City the rest of the game. City generated shot after shot (33 total), corner after corner (18 total), before Kevin DeBruyne (76’) got a hold of a weak clearance from Ruddiger, took a little subtle touch (no panic on his part) before roofing into the net.

The game, thus, had gone according to the master plan. City attacked constantly, and Madrid generated enough counters to keep the encounter honest. After DeBruyne’s goal, it seemed like Real would crack, until they didn’t. DeBruyne missed a second clear opportunity minutes after his goal that would have sealed the deal but he put it just high. Madrid survived the onslaught (48 defensive clearances !) not only during regulation but also for the extra time. Their goal, to get the game to the penalties, had been achieved.

In the six games that these two teams played over the past 3 years, Real was the perfect foil to City style. City would get goals but not in the numbers required to win outright. (The only exception to that was in the second leg at the semi-final stage in 2023 when City thumped Real by a 4-0 scoreline that was as dominant a performance that one elite team has put on another in recent memory.) In this last game, City couldn’t win in regulation and was forced to try its luck in the penalty kicks.

City’s two misses in the penalty shootout was its undoing. Madrid’s Modric was the only Merengue to miss. That slimmest of margins was the difference.

Was City the best team ? Undoubtedly. The data doesn’t lie. But Real did just enough to move on yet again. This is the sixth time that Madrid has eliminated City, twice as much as any other team. 

I’m sure another chapter of this instant classic rivalry will play out again next year.

Penalty Kicks:

To the soccer aesthete, the difference between City and Real (or is it City versus any opponent ?) is a matter of style. On the one hand is possession football at its finest: the ability of a team to hold on to the ball for extended possession in compressed space, string together tens of passes per offensive possession, swing the ball around the perimeter of the defense at will, create overloads and mismatches, generate shots and corner kicks ? Or, on the other hand, is counter-attacking football more to your taste: the ability of a team to defend fiercely and then when given the chance to strike back quickly, effectively, and efficiently (i.e. create scoring chances or score outright). It is a matter of do you enjoy a team’s ability to compress footballing space, or do you enjoy a team’s ability to explode into vacant space. I personally am awestruck by the former, but enjoy and celebrate the latter.

What is going with Halland on this team ? I’ve alluded to this before, but after this game I feel even more assured that The Terminator is a misfit for this style. Before City, Halland was well known for his explosions into enemy territory, using his amazing pace and power to beat opponents and score amazing goals. In this scheme, he hardly touches the ball. He seems relegated to trying to score with his head (he did hit the crossbar once today) or cleaning up on rebounds. On a team of creators, he is the least creative of forces.  If you click on the Passes Tab in the “theanalyst.com” site below, you’ll see Halland (#9) on a bubble by himself, disconnected from the rest of the team, all of whose players are connected by a full mesh of passing links.

The answer I think, in the context of what was previously stated, is that Halland is a better player when he’s exploding into empty spaces, where he can use his amazing pace and finishing ability, rather than operating in compressed spaces, where defenders are more efficient against him by being able to be more physical and better able to defend his limited dribbling ability. Hence, he’s limited to headers and cleaning up rebounds and deflections.

Reference:

Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid (3-4 pens, 4-4 agg) Stats: City’s Treble Hopes Dashed After Shootout Defeat
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