Arsenal defeats Real Madrid 3-0 in the first leg of Champions quarterfinals.
Return Leg
Let’s start by making a bold prediction. Real Madrid, down by 3 goals to a very good Arsenal team, a team that is second in the world’s toughest league, a team led by Spaniard Mikel Arteta, a team that plays an elegant style of football reminiscent of the Barcelona glory teams from 2008-2011, will make an astonishing comeback and defeat the Gunners before it is all said and done and advance to the semi-finals.
This prediction is based on both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The quantitative part of the equation is based on the fact that Real Madrid have won this competition 15 times and Arsenal have never won, and also because Real has proven itself, over the last decade, to be a Premier League vanquisher (Liverpool twice, Man City twice). Real Madrid have played in 502 UCL games and won 302 with 85 draws and 112 losses, so they only lose 22% of the time. I was unable to find statistics for how many home games Real has lost in this competition but extrapolating from the numbers above, it would seem fair to say that Real has probably only lost at home 50 times in 55 years of competition, or only about 1 a year. So their chances of winning at home are very high again.
The qualitative side is simple. It is not based on any tactical analysis and is simply a gut feel. It is based on the fact that Real Madrid are the best team in the history of club soccer, the most successful in this particular competition, and also because the return leg is in their home stadium, a place where they rarely lose in Champions League (see above). Real vanquished Liverpool in a somewhat similar manner in 2023 when it scored 5 straight goals after the Reds took a 2-0 nil lead in the first 15 minutes in the first leg at Anfield. Although the circumstances are somewhat different here, these Madrid players know what they are capable of simply because they have done it recently before (see video highlights at bottom).
This squad, after having been embarrassed in London, will be more than ready in the return leg. Winning championships is in the DNA of this team; their success in this tournament is simply unsurpassed. When a player signs on to play for the Merengues, they know the history, they know the height of expectations and responsibility placed on them, and most often than not, the players rise to the challenge, no matter the obstacle. The fans, accustomed to Real’s winning pedigree, always create an extremely hostile environment to away teams. The atmosphere next Tuesday at the Bernabeu should be as electric as ever given the obstacle the Merengues are facing. By the time Real get that first goal, it will be increasingly difficult for them to withstand the tsunami that is about to hit them. The first 15 minutes will be key. We will find out very soon how good the Gunners game travels.
First Leg
Arsenal truly dominated this game, creating numerous chances and forcing numerous saves from Courtois to keep the game scoreless in the first half. Arsenal had 69% possession in the first 15 minutes of the game.
The second half explosion was triggered by Declan Rice, a solid midfield player who had never scored a goal from a free kick, yet managed to score two in a 15 minute span and made history as the first player to score two set pieces in a single Champions League game. (One has to wonder why a player who never has scored off a free kick got the chance to do it not only once but twice. Arteta must have seen or sensed something during the practice sessions). It is important to note that, on the first kick, Courtois made the mistake of only placing 4 players on the wall and Rice was able to curve the ball around the limited wall, the ball bending viciously and seeming to accelerate around the last man as if it were a rocket gaining speed from the gravitational pull of a planet. The second kick was your classic upper corner “postage stamp” goal and was simply unstoppable. My favorite goal was actually Mikel Merino’s sublime finish on a pullback cross from Leandro Trossard. The technical level of that goal was simply amazing. The pace and placement of the ball was of the highest level. Most often than not, those shots go either wide (skewed by too much placement) or high (too much power).
Mike Arteta described this game as “the biggest of his managerial career” and his team delivered. But that’s the beauty of the Champions League format. One game isn’t enough to finish the job. You have to perform at your highest level in two games against the best clubs in the world. The second leg will now surely surmount the first as the most important. If Arsenal can win at Madrid, they will truly have earned it.
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