The conventional wisdom in tournament group play is that if a team wins two games, it either moves on automatically or is in a very good position to advance to the next round. This is the situation that Mexico find itself in in Group F.
After Mexico dispatched South Korea 2-1 in their second group phase game put Mexico on the verge of qualification. All it needed to ensure this was Sweden to beat or tie Germany. The Mexican’s automatic qualification was thrown into disarray when Tony Kroos executed a magnificent free kick in the 95th minute of the Germany-Sweden match. Just seconds before that kick, with the game tied at 1, Germany, the defending champion and current co-favorite to win the tournament, were essentially all but out. But an errant and unnecessary tackle at the edge of the box by the Sweden defender (replays show two other Swedish defenders within range so it was essentially a 1-3 situation for the attacking German player) set the stage for Kroos’ high drama. Realizing that the angle for the kick was very tight, Kroos and Reus discussed the strategy. In the resulting kick, Kroos rolled the ball a yard to Reus, who simply stopped the ball and lifted his foot off. Kroos struck a curving ball that eluded two Swedish defenders before arcing into the corner of the goal, just past the Swedish goalkeeper.
Just like that Germany was still in play and Mexico’s automatic ticket to the second round was in doubt.
One devilish scenario for Mexico looms. If Sweden beat Mexico 2-0 and Germany beat South Korea by an identical scoreline, Germany and Sweden would advance by virtue of better goal differential. It’s not an incompletely unthinkable scenario. I would bank on Germany’s victory as they are now full of confident after coming back from the brink. They are, after all, the world champions and traditionally one of the most resolute teams psychologically.
Sweden, on the other hand, have got to be exhausted, both physically and emotionally, after that draining loss. They gave it their all and almost knocked Germany out, but in the end succumbed to the Kroos sucker punch that very well may have eliminated them. Mexico will be a tough matchup for them. Anything’s possible, but I wouldn’t bet on it given how well Mexico has played so far.